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Cold Snaps Possible in Winter 2021-22

While winters overall have been trending mild over the past couple decades, we could see at least one cold month in the next three.  I would not expect the winter cold to be long-lasting.  Only two winters in the past 45 years have brought colder than average temperatures in three consecutive months to the Nation as a whole.

October in Review

The middle month of autumn was the Nation’s sixth warmest and ninth wettest on record.  The warmth was most pronounced from the Midwest into the Northeast while the Desert Southwest was actually cooler than normal.  Above normal precipitation in California and Nevada was welcomed after recent drought, while from the Northern Plains into the Midwest many states saw October ranking in the top ten wettest.

Autumn so Far

With September the ninth warmest on record, and the northwest half of the Nation having a mild start to November, we’re on track for this autumn to rank among the top ten warmest.  September was wet in the Northeast but was not wet for the Nation overall.  In fact it was quite a bit drier than normal in most states from the Mississippi River to the Rockies.

Rest of November

November started warm in the West and Northern Plains and was cooler than normal in most of the southeast half of the Country.  Temperatures may be fluctuating either side of normal through the middle and possibly late parts of the month.

Winter Months of December through February

The contiguous 48 states have been in a cycle of warmer than normal winters.  The past seven winters were warmer than the long-term average.  As shown on this chart of December through February temperature history, of all the winters since 2000, just four have averaged colder than normal. 

Only one of these 21 winters since the turn of the century saw December through February temperatures average more than one degree colder than the long-term normal.

Yet within some of these mild winters there have been some notable periods of extreme cold.  Just nine months ago, the Nation experienced its coldest February since 1989!  If we’re going to see unusually cold weather this winter, it’s likely to be transient and not something that persists.  Based on a combination of long-term studies, December looks like the most likely month for colder than normal weather in the coming winter, followed by February.  Recent long-range models have not been supportive of cold weather this December, but these models are notoriously fickle.

It has been more than ten years (2010-11) since each of the three winter months was colder than normal.  In that winter, though, all months were just slightly colder than normal.  Before that, we have to look all the way back to 1978-79 to find such a consistently cold winter.  That was also was the Nation’s coldest winter on record.   The late 1970s had a series of incredibly cold winters.  The three consecutive winters starting in 1976-77 were the three coldest in the last 85 years!

Early Look at Spring

Several analog years have shown an early start to spring warmth, and early indications are that March of 2022 could be quite mild.   If that occurs, the above normal temperatures would be most favored in the Eastern US and the southern Plains.

Extended Autumn Possible — When Will the Cold Weather Arrive?

The days have become noticeably shorter to the point of starting to infringe on evening activities.  With winter fast approaching, it’s time to prepare.  Part of that preparation for weather-sensitive folks is trying to discern the signs for clues of the fall and early winter temperature pattern.

Autumn Trends Over Past 25 Years

The Midwestern corn belt has tended to have fall seasons that are more often warmer than normal and more often wetter than normal since the mid-1990s.  Here are some details from the climatology.

Looking at the three months of Fall (September, October, and November) since 1995, we find seven of the 11 warmest autumn seasons in the past 125 years.  Only two of the past 25 autumns averaged one degree or more below normal.  The warming trend has not been a steady one.  The region had several very cold autumns between 1985 and 1996, including both 1991 and 1993 when wintery cold and substantial snow arrived by the start of November.

Most recently, fall of 2020 brought an early cold snap with some frost in northwest areas as soon as mid-September.  The autumn season overall was a little warmer than normal.  At 93% of normal, It was also the region’s driest fall since 2012.

In recent years both the early and late portions of autumn have been seeing above normal temperatures.  In the 22 years from 1999 to 2020, September temperatures were well above normal 12 times (but well below normal just twice).  On the other end of autumn, only three of the past 22 years had Novembers in which temperatures were well below normal.  That 22-year period not only contained the five warmest Novembers in the past 125 years, but nine others which weren’t quite as warm yet still classified as well above normal.

Minnesota just completed its 8th warmest September on record.  In the past thirty years, when Septembers have been among the top ten warmest in Minnesota, October has also had a strong tendency to be warmer than normal.  Most of the medium range weather models agree that the central and eastern US have excellent prospects of a warm first two weeks of October, and this is reflected in the 30-day outlooks released by NOAA’s CPC on October 2nd.


Soil Moisture Sees an Autumn Recharge

Most autumns of the past 25 years have been near to above normal for Corn Belt moisture.  Though 2020 brought the driest fall season since 2012, both 2018 and 2019 had very wet autumns in the Corn Belt.   September and October have tended to bring the wetter conditions with respect to normal.  The timing of early autumn rains has tended to boost yields for late developing soybean crops.  At the same time, lighter late autumn rain and snow have allowed an extended window in which late harvest progress has been good.

2021 Baseball Season Adventure — Part One

My first major road trip since the start of the pandemic, with the primary destination of meeting my new granddaughter in Ohio, took me into the heart of High-A Central territory.

Wondering what you’ll need for your 2021 baseball adventures? Get this free checklist

The first stop of day one was in Cedar Rapids for a tour of the Kernels Hall of Fame and History Timeline.  In the 1970s, I vaguely remember attending a Kernels (then Giants) game with my grandfather and cousins at the old Veterans Memorial Stadium.  A new rendition of that stadium has been in place in the southwest part of Cedar Rapids (not far from the historic Czech Village) since 2002.  The pro shop has an attached history museum where I learned that Cedar Rapids has had a professional team since 1891 and that the Twins (since 2013) are the tenth different MLB team with which the franchise has been affiliated.

Display of Cedar Rapids baseball history, part of the Kernels Hall of Fame exhibit.
The Cedar Rapids team now known as the Kernels has had ten different major league affiliations since 1950. The longest such partnership, with the Angels, lasted twenty seasons.

The first game on this trip was in Peoria where the Chiefs (High A affiliate of STL Cardinals) hosted the Quad Cities River Bandits.  Shortly before my trip I came across an article noting that Peoria’s Dozer Park is one of the minor league stadiums lacking protective netting beyond the near ends of the dugouts.  Looking at the recent history for major league venues shows that a few dozen fans are injured each season by foul balls including a handful of serious injuries.  I decided it was time to put the old leather baseball glove into my traveling gear.  The one I found at home was also the OLDEST in the house, the glove that I wore as an eight year old playing park and rec ball!  

My view of the field at Dozer Park in Peoria, Illinois just before first pitch on May 21, 2021.
The view from my seat at Dozer Park in Peoria, IL just before first pitch on the evening of May 21st, 2021. A perfect evening for baseball!

I did not need to use the glove as no foul balls came close to me, but several passed overhead on their way onto adjoining Jefferson Avenue, the street running adjacent to the left field line.   It is so close that some on-street parking spaces beyond the left field wall offer a decent view of the field, and the team has installed netting to protect cars.  I visited the gift shop and viewed some of the historical displays where I was reminded that the great Kirby Puckett played college baseball in Peoria, for Bradley University.

The baseball high point of this tour was on Sunday, May 23rd when the Cincinnati Reds hosted the Milwaukee Brewers on a hot, sunny afternoon at Great American Ballpark.  Average attendance for the Reds first 24 home games was 12,174 and the size of the gathering at this game appeared to be close to that number. 

View of the stands at Great American Ballpark May 23, 2021 filled to 30% capacity.
Note the widely scattered nature of fans amid the sea of red seats (May 23, 2021 at Great American Ballpark)

When I bought tickets for the game back in April for center field Section 101, I found that the Reds were selling some seats as “pods of one”.  I learned from this helpful resource that seats in the shade can be found in rows M through P of these lower left field sections. I chose one seat in the sun and one seat in the shade of the same section, offering one to my son-in-law.  When he could not attend, and the weather forecast looked unseasonably warm, I re-sold the ticket for the “sunny seat” the day before the game.  Unfortunately, the Reds had increased the percentage of seats sold starting in mid-May and so supply and demand influences resulted in taking a bit of a loss on this extra ticket.  When I got to row O, I found that my section came with an asterisk to the shady seat generalization.  The second level of the left field structure does not quite overhang the west half of section 101 and I was actually set up to bask in the sun after all. 

My nearly-shaded seat location is noted in the right-hand section of this picture.

When a passing cloud departed and vivid sunlight spread across my spot, I left to take a walking tour of the stadium which lasted for the remainder of my time at the game.  Having the stadium at 30% of capacity made for a more leisurely and uncrowded experience as I I took in some fine views of the Ohio River past the outfield walls.  I stood in the right field corner, an excellent vantage point for witnessing two third-inning home runs, particularly this notable blast by Jesse Winker.   

I made my way to the concourse behind home plate into which a cooling breeze was funneling during one of the middle innings.  I later took up a position down the left-field line, alert for potential foul balls should a left-handed batter take a late swing.  Just before leaving the ballpark, I made sure to stop at the Fan Accommodation counter where I was presented with a commemorative certificate of attendance at my first Reds game!

All first-time fans at Great American Ballpark can receive a personalized certificate from either of the Fan Accommodation stations!

Best Weather For a Baseball Road Trip

How would you find the best weather for a baseball road trip? Last year, I noted the proliferation of year-round travelers who choose to relocate every few weeks.  For some, this periodic migration is facilitated by RV ownership and has the goal of following ideal weather conditions throughout the year.  With the intent of finding normal monthly temperatures near 70 degrees, one would spend January and part of February in Florida and then move northward with the onset of spring, reaching the Northern Plains in early summer.   The return of fans at baseball games in 2021 and seeing this 50-state baseball tour article inspired me to combine the concepts of ideal temperatures with some great baseball sites. 

During the spring and early summer, it’s possible for baseball fans to follow comfortable temperatures northward while enjoying some great games and historical sites along the way! Image Credit = Daniel Cartin via unsplash.com

Following the 70-degree vacation as a baseball fan, the itinerary would move north slightly ahead of the progression of early season baseball from spring training to regular season openers.  The most active weeks for attending games would be from April through early June when many professional games (including minor leagues) would be found within a short drive of your prescribed route.   Add in college baseball, for which the season begins in mid-February, and you have another six weeks of action ahead of the major league opening day. The month of March has NCAA baseball in full swing throughout the Southeast with dozens of colleges and universities vying for conference championships.  Two of the largest conferences, each with 14 teams, are the SEC (Southeast) and ACC (Atlantic Coast) with rosters containing some of the most highly-regarded young players.  Here’s a great resource listing all of the college baseball conferences and their member teams!

Wondering what you’ll need for your 2021 baseball adventures? Get this free checklist

By early summer the flight from hot weather would take you well north of where most major league teams are located.  So let’s add some other baseball-themed attractions to our list. These include birthplaces and burial sites of Hall of Fame players, baseball fields that were used for well-known motion pictures, or locations of feats by legendary players.  Month by month, let’s see what treasures we can uncover.  While spending the first few weeks of the year in Florida, you’d want to make time to visit the site of Babe Ruth’s longest home run.  A plaque on the University of Tampa campus marks the landing spot of that ball. The temperature-sensitive traveler is located in Georgia for the month of March, and a stop in Atlanta features the famous center field Magnolia Tree, the only remnant of historic Ponce de Leon Park.  As with our Tampa stop, this Atlanta location also has a connection to Babe Ruth.  The slugger once hit the tree (located 462 feet from home plate) on the fly with a home run. 

To keep up with the 70-degree weather, it’s necessary to move northward more quickly during the spring into early summer.  During April, Asheville, NC is the favored location.  In years past the minor league baseball season opened at McCormick Field during the first week of the month, but this season opening day was delayed a month, a scheduling feature which may or may not continue for the High-A leagues in 2022.  On the way to the Carolina mountains, longtime fans of the Yankees or Oakland A’s may want to take a route along the outer banks to the Catfish Hunter Memorial in Hertford which is to the east of the state capital of Raleigh.

During the month of May, Kansas City can have periods of delightful spring and summerlike weather and this is the climatologically recommended stop.  On the way west, you might plan your journey to allow for a visit to Busch Stadium for a Cardinals game.  Kansas City’s increasingly famous Negro Leagues Baseball Museum is an essential stop for those who love history or just want to learn more about great players and teams from baseball’s past.  All of the minor leagues are underway during May and within three hours drive of Kansas City are two AAA teams (at Omaha and Des Moines) and two AA teams (in Wichita, KS and Springfield, MO).

For June, the Black Hills of South Dakota offer respite from summer heat by virtue of their higher elevation and semi-arid climate.  On your way north, you might pass through Omaha in time for the College World Series, or take in an Omaha Royals game.  You will also find independent baseball teams from the American Association playing in Sioux City, IA and Sioux Falls, SD. 

I’ll be completing the remaining months of this tour in an upcoming article. In the meantime I wish you all the best weather for your own baseball road trip!

Can Temperature Predict MLB Baseball Attendance?

Can temperature predict MLB baseball attendance and what weather conditions could bring the biggest crowds in 2021?  The answer depends more on the calendar than you might think, especially in this reopening year when potential ticket sales should gradually approach full capacity in some ballparks!  Some time ago, I looked at attendance averages from the last full season for the Minor League Baseball teams. Now we can look in more detail at some drivers of Major League attendance patterns.

Baseball Attendance Related to Temperature

I recently uncovered a couple studies looking at baseball attendance related to temperature and other weather conditions.  The first, a study of MLB attendance solely in relation to temperature was performed by Jordan Bean, a data analytics professional working in the insurance industry.  This research was motivated by the baseball commissioner’s 2018 comment that a downward attendance trend had been due to weather patterns.  At the time that was almost certainly true because of a remarkably cold and snowy April up north, but Jordan’s research expanded the range of years examined to almost three decades. 

Wondering what you’ll need for your 2021 baseball adventures? Get this free checklist

It turns out that finding consistent daily temperature data for the MLB cities before 2010 is very difficult.  In the study, which used attendance data back to 1990, Jordan resorted to using monthly average temperature rather than the daily game by game detail.  Considering the factors that drive attendance, this approach makes sense.  Decisions to attend games are often made well before the day of the game.  Since not all fans are closely following the weather forecast, but do notice the current weather, monthly average temperatures should tie to attendance within that month.  The summer months do have the highest per game averages but that could well be a case of a correlation not caused by warmer temperatures. Taken across all stadiums combined, July has the highest attendance, followed by the two other summer months.  April is the lowest attendance month, but May and September were found to be almost as low. 

Though July has the highest overall attendance, we will soon see that there are many MLB cities for which other months have the highest attendance. (Source = https://jordanbean.medium.com/analyzing-mlb-attendance-and-temperature-6cb2b1af2bd4)

Plotting Attendance Against Other Influencers

A second study that I uncovered provides several charts plotting attendance against other influencers. Many of these show unique patterns for each individual major league stadium.  Several MLB cities show a gradual decline in attendance going from June through the hottest months of July and August. In the coldest weather cities, where May and early June occasionally have some chilly days, the July and August attendance stands up very well compared to June.  In fact in Cleveland’s Progressive Field and Chicago’s Guaranteed Rate Field, these are the highest attendance months.  Farther south over the Nation’s heartland where late summer humidity can be extreme, June is the clear attendance winner.  It makes sense to see an inverse relationship between attendance and temperature in the South with outdoor stadiums in locations such as Texas (until 2020), Atlanta, and even Saint Louis and Cincinnati being oppressively hot in July and August.   Then, too, some teams fall out of contention by the dog days of summer causing fan interest to slacken in the warmest part of the year.  Rainy conditions can result in up to a 20% decline in attendance compared to clear skies.  Finally, it should also not surprise anyone that the day of the week (shown below) may have the strongest effect of all, with Saturday attendance figures being the clear winner.

Saturday attendance shows the highest per game average with Monday through Thursday games often having much lower attendance. (Source = https://rpubs.com/spuzzanghera/609595)

Ballpark Directions – Beyond GPS

If I had talked about ballpark directions twenty-five years ago, the reader would have been thinking in terms of learning the route to the stadium.  The directions to the ballpark to which I refer here relate to the layout or orientation of stadiums with respect to points on the compass.  This is so important that a Major League rule (not always observed) addresses this issue.  Why is it important?  The answer may affect your choice of seats next time you attend a baseball game!

The effects of the sun, evident in this aerial view, can affect your ability to follow the baseball visually during day games. Image credit = Rob Potvin on unsplash.com

Shadows Cast Predictable Effects on Viewing

The sun in the sky at the start of early afternoon games is slightly south or southwest of being directly overhead with a short shadow cast toward the north-northeast.  For evening games, the sun sinks lower and lower in the west and at mid-season, the northwestern sky.  As this happens, shadows lengthen toward the east and southeast.  Most stadiums are oriented so that the batter standing at home plate faces north, northeast, or east.  That minimizes glare from the sun which when looking toward the pitcher’s mound.  This is especially important in the late weeks of the season when the afternoon sun is at a lower angle.  For fans, awareness of the stadium layout can help you predict whether your seat will be in the sun or the shade.  The effects of the sun will also affect your visual ability to follow the ball during the game.

There can be a lot of reasons why a given baseball stadium is laid out differently than the recommended direction.  For instance, as pointed out in this article, PNC Park Pittsburgh looks east-southeast probably to provide the best view of the downtown skyline.  The article also points out that, in stadiums with a typical orientation to the compass points, right field is the last area to receive the shade from the grandstand.  That’s where teams often place a more experienced or skilled outfielder.  Think of Bryce Harper of the Phillies or Mookie Betts with the Dodgers striving to meet fans’ high expectations along with battling the sun.

Especially if you are sensitive to the sun shining in your eyes or the heat of the sun beating down on your body, you can check out this Baseball Almanac page showing the compass orientations of the major league ballparks. As noted previously, most parks look toward the north, northeast, or east but I found one outlier. Comerica Field in Detroit looks toward the south-southeast when viewing from home plate!  It seems that the glare of the sun could be hazardous to batters during day games in the fall!  There is a hazy look that occurs with a lower sun angle, especially in the more humid or dusty conditions of late summer or fall.

Sun Angle Varies with the Calendar

The sun angle varies with the calendar date and is most directly overhead at mid-day during the month of June.  Similar months in which the sun is almost as high are the adjoining months of May and July.   April and August are similar, both having days that are notably shorter and the shadows somewhat longer than what June brings.   Though having similar sun angles, April and August feel starkly different for outdoor fans because April is usually a lot colder and August can be extremely humid.  September and October are unique, with the sun at lower angles similar to what February and March would produce.   The intensity of the sun is quickly weakening, and the lower sun angle can have significant effects.  To dive more deeply into details of shadowing effects based on your location and the calendar date, look here!

High humidity or even dust in the air wil enhance the glare produced by low sun angles. (Photo credit = David Marcu on unsplash.com)

The Bright Side of Sun Angles

Let’s look on the bright side of sun angles and consider this in a positive light for Midwestern sports fans.   The intensity and position of the early afternoon sun during March in Arizona and Florida is similar to that seen in May for Denver, Saint Louis or Cincinnati.  Average high temperatures, approaching 80 degrees, are often similar as well.  So if you weren’t able to escape to Florida for spring training action in March, you can enjoy similar conditions in the Midwest by just waiting a few more weeks until the middle or late part of May!

Three Lessons from Opening Week

2021 Season Off to a Good Start

History doesn’t always repeat in baseball, but it often rhymes.  There were three lessons from the opening week of the 2021 season that really should come as no surprise.  It seems we re-learn these lessons every season!

Playing in the Cold is Challenging

The first lesson from opening week:  Playing cold weather baseball is challenging!  Four opening day games on Thursday, April 1st were played in chilly conditions, with one game postponed a day due to threat of rain.  The first home run of the 2021 season was hit in Detroit during a snow shower and the player who hit it, unable to see where it landed, slid into second base when the ball bounced back onto the field after just clearing the fence. 

Challenging conditions in the cold and snow on Opening Day.

Open the Gates and People Will Come

The second of the three opening week lessons: Open the gates and people will come! Opening Day attendance averaged 93% of the allowed capacity across MLB.  No more than a few hundred fans (less than 5% of tickets sold) appear to have been kept away in the cities with chilly weather. With tickets so limited, there wasn’t much of a drop off for second game attendance, which averaged 94% of that on opening day.  These opening day numbers were between 10% and 40% of what we might usually see for the start of a season. The exception was in Texas where the Rangers sold unlimited tickets to their first game in their new Globe Life Field and reached 95% of capacity.  Another series of opening days is occurring this week, and most of these games are seeing warmer than normal weather. 

Early Results Don’t Predict the Outcome

The last of the three opening week lessons: It’s hazardous to draw conclusions from the past – either based on the early innings of a game or on the standings of the past season.  On opening day there were six comeback wins in 13 games, and two teams lost after holding comfortable leads in the 8th and 9th inning.  A lot of games were close, with a record of eight opening-day games decided by a single run. (The old record for one-run games on Opening Day was six in 1972.)  On the second day of the season, with only six games on the schedule, there were two more comeback wins, including another ninth inning rally.

Baseball players celebrating a dramatic victory.

Of the 11 Opening Day games involving playoff teams from 2020, only two of them finished the way that one would have expected based on last year’s standings.  In five games, a playoff team from 2020 lost to one of the teams that were left out of last season’s playoffs!   But in a broader application of lesson 1 above, three of those five playoff teams came back to win the opening series.

Mid-April Weather: More Like April and Less Like June

Because the calendar shows we’re approaching mid-April, it is not shocking to see weather more like April and less like June – in other words a reversal from warm days back to cool.  The past week saw a quick return of warmer than normal weather in the northern cities but that is now changing.   There is some threat of rain during a transition back to cooler weather.  Notice the wide area of the country in which below normal temperatures are favored for the second full week of April! 

Temperature Outlook for mid-April 2021
Most areas east of the Rockies will have cooler than normal temperatures during the middle of April according to this outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

The highest chances for unsettled weather for the second full week of April will be along the East Coast and from the Gulf Coast states northwestward to Dallas and possibly Denver. Last April, the coldest days occurred right in the middle of the month (14th to 17th) in places like Cleveland and Pittsburgh when it was chilly enough for some wet snow.  That chilly spell lasted for about eight days — similar to the below normal temperature pattern that will spread east from the Plains states over this next week. 

Weather Outlook for Start to the 2021 MLB Season

Some Teams Have a Big Adjustment to Make

The weather outlook for the start to the 2021 MLB season shows that some major league teams have a big adjustment to make as they head north.  Baseball teams leave the frigid north in mid-February to train in pleasantly warm conditions and then sometimes flee the increasing early spring heat at the end of March to go north and play in….winter-like conditions!  I recently wrote about this cold spring trend and looked at the April weather in the Northeast US when no regular-season games were played in the spring of 2020.  There were several recent years when players and coaches alike probably wished they could have stayed in Florida or Arizona one more month. 

Wondering what you’ll need for your 2021 baseball adventures? Get this free checklist

For some that extended stay in the tropics is actually going to happen this season, not for any climatologically-inspired reason, but rather due to the pandemic.   The Toronto Blue Jays and opposing teams cannot easily cross the US-Canadian border so the Blue Jays will play their first several home series at their Florida spring training stadium.  Many minor-league players also get to escape any April chill by virtue of league-wide scheduling.  All the minor league teams that historically started in early April now have their seasons pushed back until the first week of May.  The majority of players for those teams will have spring training during April at the facilities about to be vacated by the major leaguers.

How Warm Has it Been?

The teams playing in Florida have enjoyed consistently warm weather.  Most of the month of March averaged close to normal at places like Fort Myers (home of the Twins and Red Sox) with about half the days reaching highs in the 70s and the other half in the low to middle 80s.  Then it became hot with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s beginning on the 25th.  These temperatures are about ten degrees above normal and close to late March records. 

Map of Grapefruit League team locations in Florida.
This map shows the locations of the 15 Grapefruit League teams. Source = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grapefruit_League

Teams such as the Yankees (hosting Blue Jays), the Tigers (hosting the Indians) and Phillies (welcoming the Braves) have been playing in the Florida heat but could have highs as cold as the upper 30s and 40s for the first game of the regular season along with plenty of clouds and chilly winds. The Reds, whose spring training home is in Arizona, did see stretches of cooler than normal March weather there (seven days in Phoenix failed to reach 70) but opening day in Cincinnati could be 25 degrees colder than the coolest day during the Cactus League schedule.   The East Coast and eastern Midwest may have some lingering showers on opening day, otherwise a generally dry pattern with a warming trend will cover much of the Nation during the first week of April.  If all opening games are played as scheduled this will be the first season since 1968 that every team opens the regular season on the same date! 

Some Teams Consigned to Stay up North

Having become acclimated to summerlike spring training weather, some teams are consigned by the schedule maker to stay up north for most of April.  Once the season starts, they don’t see much early action outside the northern tier of states.  For example, the Yankees have twenty of their 27 April games in cold-weather cities – either at home, in Cleveland, or Baltimore – interrupted only by games back in Florida during week two of the season.   Even more notable, Boston plays all twenty-five of its games in the first four weeks of the season either at home or in other northern cities such as New York, Minneapolis, or Baltimore before ending the month with two games in Texas.  These teams would really benefit from a milder and drier April pattern, avoiding a backlog of games to be made up during the warmer months of the year.

Trends into May – Baseball-Friendly Weather to the South and West

The general forecast trends for April into May are suggesting baseball-friendly (warmer than normal) weather for much of the Nation in the month of April (see the NOAA outlook map below).  That would mean lots of days in the upper 60s and 70s for cities like Kansas City, Chicago, and even Minneapolis. 

Mid-April 2021 temperature outlook map for the US.
This NOAA/NCEI temperature outlook for mid-April suggests there could be widespread temperatures more typical of May! Source = cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Some more refined outlooks from private forecasters show that New England and the mid-Atlantic states have lower confidence on a lasting warmup and could even average cooler than normal overall for the month of April.  That would mean daytime highs frequently back in the 40s and 50s.  Combine that with some night games on the schedule and a potentially more showery pattern in the Northeast and it may not seem much like spring at times.  The month of May brings the higher chances of above normal rainfall in the Northeast and more likely near to below normal rainfall across the Midwest and Western states.

Five Questions to Answer for New Baseball Fans

What five questions would you answer for new baseball fans to understand the game quickly?  As the world re-opens from COVID many people may be looking for new experiences and activities.  It would be great if some of them became new baseball fans!  How would you explain the game to someone for whom it was a new experience? 

Baseball player with mask

A newcomer may not even know what questions to ask, so I’ve listed five questions which you could ask (and answer) for the new fan to help accelerate the learning process.  These provide insight into not only the basic rules but also some of the strategy employed by teams.

Question 1 – What is the Object of the Game? 

The team with the most runners safely rounding the bases and touching home plate (in nine innings worth of opportunities) wins the game.  One of the interesting facets of the game is that a team can have a lot more runners on base but end up losing because it is unable to advance them to score.  In that respect, baseball is like other sports.  Base runners in baseball could be analogous to shots on goal in hockey or first downs in football.  Other times, a team will have few runners on base but wins the game because it is efficient at getting them to score.  That’s why it’s a common defensive strategy to utilize intentional walks to avoid stronger batters and put more runners reach base if that makes it easier or more likely to get three outs before any runs score.

Here’s a fun Youtube video describing the basics of the game.  The explanations aren’t perfect, especially relating to some of the finer points of the rules.  For that reason, it might be most useful as entertainment for experienced fans and a source of perspective, helping generate ideas and insights for explaining the game on both an intuitive and deeper level.

For sheer efficiency in bringing a newcomer to basic understanding, this might make great reading the night before attending a ballgame for the first time.

Question 2 – Who is the Most Important Batter to Watch?

The answer to this question for new fans depends on the situation, both in terms of the pitcher and batter matchup and the portion of the game in which the teams are playing.  Some batters are skilled at hitting home runs so any time they come to the plate the chance of scoring is reasonably good.  Some batters do not possess much raw power but are skilled at putting shorter hits into play.  That hitter will have important opportunities when there are runners on base.  Runners who are on second or third base are running AWAY from the fielders as they try to reach home plate which provides a definite advantage.  It takes just seven seconds for a fast player to advance from second base to score.

Question 3 – What Makes a Batted Ball Fair or Foul?

On the infield, wherever the ball stops rolling or is first touched by a fielder determines whether it is fair or foul.  For this reason, a weakly hit ball or bunt may be allow to roll – even until it stops — if the fielders judge that it will go foul.  On the other hand, if the fielder can easily get the runner out he will quickly pick up that weakly hit ball and make the play.

A hit to the outfield is judged fair or foul based on where it first hits the ground.  It can LAND in fair territory and bounce INTO foul ground but it’s still a fair ball.  That makes for some interesting results!  It’s good to call attention to the dimensions and unique architecture of the outfield walls to get new fans thinking about what can happen as balls roll and bounce where fielders can’t reach them.  One consideration will be the special rules for balls that bounce into the stands or are touched by fans reaching over the wall.  It is definitely going to make fan interference much less likely while the first few rows of seats are kept empty during the pandemic.

Question 4- How do Teams Decide on Defensive Strategy?

Often the defensive team will strategize based on an assessment of how many runs will be needed to win the game.  If one team has a really good starting pitcher, the other team may take every risk to stop the other team from scoring more than one or two runs.  If the opposing pitcher is less daunting a team may be more patient in the field and will focus on preventing a large rally, taking the sure out at first base rather than risking a larger rally to try and stop every single runner from scoring.  When a runner is on third base with less than two outs, it can be a good teaching moment to point out how the fielders are aligned and what that says about the defensive strategy.

Another source of strategy comes into play for each individual batter. Analytics have provided a profile of each batter’s strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies. Many teams will pitch to the batter and align their defense according to the statistical analysis in order to maximize the chance of retiring the batter (getting him out).

Question 5 – Why are the Hardest Hits Not Always the Most Valuable?

No matter how hard a ball is hit, the fielders may still be able to catch it.  Remember that the object of the game is to get runners to advance safely around the bases to touch home plate.  Whenever the ball is hit on the ground they have opportunity to advance while for balls in the air they must wait at least until it is caught.  The fielders are talented enough to get to most balls quickly, but a slowly hit ball on the infield can be surprisingly troublesome.  While the fielders are racing to get the ball, the swift runners can cover a lot of ground. 

Five Tips for Baseball Fans to Avoid Waiting in Line

Arrive at the Game Earlier (or Later)

Baseball fans can avoid waiting in line by taking advantage of the fact that stadium gates usually will open about ninety minutes before the start of the game.  A real motivator to arrive early is when the team is giving away a novelty or commemorative item because supplies may be limited to the first 10,000 or 15,000 fans.  Another reason for early arrival, especially for evening games, is to watch batting practice. A third reason, and my favorite, is to walk down memory lane.  That’s because many of the newer baseball stadiums have display areas that serve as museums of team history.  Fans can also avoid waiting in line by arriving late.  You won’t find lines to get in the gate but you may have a long walk to that gate from your parking spot, especially as stadiums return closer to full capacity as the pandemic is defeated.

Photo by Chris Chow on Unsplash

Attend Early in the Season (or in September)

Baseball fans can also avoid waiting in line by choosing less popular game dates.  This tip seems like a variation on the first rule, except rather than utilizing the clock, you will study the calendar!  Hot weather, summer vacations, and close division races bring out greater numbers of fans.  If you can bundle up against the early-season or late-season chill, attend on a school night, or after a team falls out of contention, you can have a fine ballpark experience without the crowds.  Fans should always expect that teams with newer stadiums will have scarce tickets as fans are eager to come see the new confines.  Be aware of promotions like post-game fireworks, ceremonies honoring past stars or fan appreciation nights which always draw big crowds.

Leverage Your Smartphone

Baseball fans can avoid waiting in line by putting their phones to good use.  Teams have made everything from tickets to concessions and merchandise available for purchase via the MLB Ballpark app, and this season that will be the only way to buy some ballpark items.  Even if you are not required to buy online, you’ll almost certainly need to pay electronically.  Most stadiums have become cashless environments due to COVID, so be ready to use a credit card or phone-based apps for transferring money. (Photo by Ashkan Forouzani on Unsplash)

In my Back to Baseball 2021 course I will provide a guide to ordering food from the MLB Ballpark app.

Carry a Personal Supply of Snacks

Those fans who avoid waiting in line to this point may also not want to wait to eat.  Most venues will allow you to bring sealed bottled water and a small disposable snack bag into the game, but best to check your team’s rules beforehand.  Snacks (if permitted) in a transparent bag will allow for touchless security screening to make your access to the stadium quicker.  You can often find detailed rules about what you can bring on the team website under the ballpark security, or health and safety sections.  If carrying snacks into the game is impractical, and you don’t like the limited concession offerings during COVID, one good strategy for a pre-game or post-game feast is to bring a cooler full of favorite snacks that never leaves your car.   Then drinking plenty of water during the game should carry you through a three or even four-hour time frame.

Carry Hand Sanitizer in Your Pocket

Finally, baseball fans who avoid waiting in line to enter the stadium and to buy food may want one final tool on hand – something that you’re likely already using often.  Hand cleansing stations will be set up around every stadium, and I don’t anticipate long lines for this free hand sanitizer, but it could take a little time to get there from your seat.  There may be times when you will want clean hands without waiting for an inning to end or missing any of the action.

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